How poker helps you deal with life
You can appreciate the risk/reward ratio, call a bluff and spot a sucker
If you want help understanding everything from COVID vaccines to #MeToo to Black Lives Matter, learn to play poker. And maybe watch “Slumdog Millionaire” while you’re at it.
Poker players never have enough information to make the perfect decision about whether to raise, call or fold. The best ones learn how to read people and probabilities.
In “Slumdog Millionaire,” 18-year-old Jamal gets on India’s version of “Who Wants To Be a Millionaire.” He grew up in the slums of Mumbai, so winning anything would change his life, but he has bigger stakes: reconnecting with Latika, the love of his life.
Consider three things:
The risk/reward ratio. Suppose the pot’s $100 and you have a rotten hand, but you’re almost certain that if you bet $50, all your opponents will fold at least half the time. So half the time you’ll lose $50, but the other half you’ll win $100. Make the damn bet.
Everything from investing in stocks to taking birth control pills to getting vaccines involves a risk, but the rewards are often much greater. In “Slumdog Millionaire,” Jamal risks a ridiculous amount of money, but love is priceless.
The #MeToo movement owes its success to a shift in the risk/reward ratio. More victims of harassment and bullying now risk coming forward because they’ve seen others get supported, not ostracized. And more companies have realized that the risk of lawsuits and public relations disasters outweighs any rewards that a star performer might bring.
That is happening slowly with Black Lives Matter. As horrific videos keep showing up, even old white people have become more cynical about police. Lawsuits and protests are costing taxpayers tons of money, making them more likely to crack down. As they see the risk/reward ratio turning against them, bullies and racists might be less attracted to police work, and well-meaning officers might be more willing to turn them in.
Making a big bet. Sometimes there are good reasons for calling an opponent’s bet, but often the pros would rather raise because they can learn vital information. If your opponent calls, you’ve taken over as the alpha dog, so you might win the next round with a good bet. If they reraise, you know you’re in for a fight, even if they’re bluffing.
When you ask your boss for a raise or give someone an ultimatum, you’re placing a big bet so you can find out where you stand, which might save you from years of delusions. If you’re the first one who says “I love you” in a relationship and you hear back “thanks” or “umm” or “How did you get this number?” you just might want to fold.
Looking for the sucker. There’s an adage in poker: If you look around the table and can’t spot the sucker, it’s you. Poker players often can figure out who’s bluffing, and we all can use some of their smarts to sort out the political lies that pop up on the internet and in the media.
If a big hand gets to a critical point, poker players will eye their opponents and ask themselves all sorts of crucial questions. Do they raise in most hands or only when they have something good? What could they have? What do they want me to think they have? Does their betting pattern fit that scenario?
Use the same methodology if you see a dicey political item. Just because something pops up on dozens of websites doesn’t make it accurate. Who is the most credible person or outlet reporting it? Do they point you to documents or identify their sources? Do they cite a specific incident on a specific day in a specific city?
Does their story add up? If Joe Biden really wanted to cut red-meat consumption drastically, don’t you think there’d be some huge public relations push from the White House?
Sometimes you have to pause and re-examine the data. Fourteen months ago, lots of people might have believed that COVID was like a bad flu, and masks were unnecessary. But as fresh data came in, the picture changed. Those who clung to those old beliefs risked their lives for a meager reward, and sometimes they lost.
If all people offer is generalities, like vague references to government conspiracies and widespread voter fraud and “fake news,” they just might be looking for a sucker. Make sure it isn’t you.
Murphy Slaw
Something old: This is from nearly a decade ago, with Gustavo Dudamel leading the Simón Bolívar Youth Orchestra in a Caracas performance of Leonard Bernstein’s “Mambo” from “West Side Story.” Pure joy.
Something new: I’m not endorsing Google, but this is one great ad.
Something borrowed: Singer Phoebe Bridgers describes on this podcast how her guitar player, Harrison Whitford, said “maybe that’s stupid” as he brought up an unconventional idea for part of a song, but she loved it. “I have a theory that whatever your ‘joke’ idea is is probably just a genius idea that you’re a little nervous about.”
It’s hard to share quirky ideas, even with loved ones. Try to find a friend who’s like an improv comedian, taking your absurdity and saying, “yes, and …” then you both riff for a few minutes. Even if it falls flat, you’ll know you tried.
Something blue: I’m always in a funk in early May. Dad died years ago on May 4, and Mom’s birthday was May 7. One strong memory of both: I was graduating from community college and figured I’d skip the ceremony, because the degree is just a steppingstone if you’re going on to a four-year school.
Dad was fine with that, but Mom wanted us to go, so we did. The dean of students said something nice about me, and the proud parents went home happy.
I didn’t know then that maybe the ceremony meant so much to Mom because she never finished high school, because her family was poor, because it was during the Depression, because she had to drop out to help raise two much-younger siblings. I also didn’t know that Mom would die two months after I graduated.
If this hellhole of a decade teaches you only one thing, make it this: Celebrate everything. Celebrate milestones and wild scones. Celebrate getting out of bed when your demons are trying their damnedest to stop you. Celebrate your efforts proudly and your victories loudly. Celebrate getting sick from a vaccine instead of getting dead from a virus.
Most of all, celebrate the person who says “I love you” first, even if it’s you. Especially if it’s you.